- Herbert Spaul
- 3 weeks, 1 day ago
The spread between "hard" and "soft", or survey and sentiment data, ever since the election has been extensively noted and discussed on this website in recent months (especially since over the past two months the soft data has rolled decisively over, while the Citi economic surprise index has crashed at the fastest pace on record). Which is why it will come as no surprise to readers that, as Goldman writes in a note looking at "Peak Sentiment", over the past six months, US “sentiment surveys” have outpaced both “activity surveys” and “hard data”. This rise in sentiment has accelerated in the post-election period, prompting many (Goldman included) to link the surge in sentiment with optimism about the new administration’s pro-growth policy. It has also spilled over into equity markets in general, and institutional and retail traders in particular.