It is the 26th of June 2017

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When Will The Fed Tighten Enough To Cause The Next Recession?

In addition to the wildly popular topic of the market's record low volatility, coupled with speculation what could break the current spell of "endemic complacency" and what its impact would be on asset prices (yesterday we posted a fascinating take by DB's Aleksandar Kocic on the issue of the markets current "metastability"), another question that has fascinated the economic community is when will the next recession hit.

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U.S. Weeks Away From A Recession According To Latest Loan Data

While many "conventional" indicators of US economic vibrancy and strength have lost their informational and predictive value over the past decade (GDP fluctuates erratically especially in Q1, employment is the lowest this century yet real wage growth is non-existent, inflation remains under the Fed's target despite its $4.5 trillion balance sheet and so on), one indicator has remained a stubbornly fail-safe marker of economic contraction: since the 1960, every time Commercial & Industrial loan balances have declined (or simply stopped growing), whether due to tighter loan supply or declining demand, a recession was already either in progress or would start soon.

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